Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Jobz Am Job Won

Graph Courtesy of www.econmatters.com
The above chart represents unemployment between 2004 - 2011.  I added a red line to represent when President GW Bush left office and President Obama assumed his new role.  (Regardless, please consider any current Economic Conditions to be GW Bush's Fault - yes, I can be taught!) 

Looking at this as a Conservative Guy, it seems to me that the Unemployment level was 'relatively' stable for the first five years charted above, with the exception of the last quarter of 2008 when things got 'interesting' in the Economy.  I'd re-cover that ground here, but you lived through it - you remember it, right?  Yeah, sorry, I didn't mean to open an old wound. 

If you look above, you'll see that the area to the right of the red line is a bit more 'active' having higher peaks and fewer 'low' valleys.  To President Obama's credit (you may want to write this down) Construction and Manufacturing Unemployment have been falling for the past couple of months.  Way to Go President O!!!

What?  Come on, I'm trying to write my first post in over a week, and, yeah, what do you guys want?!?!  Oh?  Really?  Rats.  I've just been informed by my crack Moos Room staff that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has stopped counting about 2.6 MILLION workers because they've been unemployed too long.  Sheesh, that's not their fault - why hold it against them?

According to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics):  About 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in August, up from 2.4 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 977,000 discouraged workers in August, down by 133,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged  workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in August had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.  (Source:  BLS)

2.6 MILLION Americans are no longer counted in the unemployment roles because they've been unemployed...  Too long.  Okay, got it.

Darn you GW Bush, darn you to heck!

Once again, scanning yet another BLS report, I find that total labor force in the US is 153.6 MILLION for the month of August 2011.  Taking off my shoes and socks to do the math, this means that if we included the Americans who are no longer counted, this number of 'un-counted' workers would mean an additional 1.6927% unemployment, putting the 'real' unemployment rate at something like:

9.1% + 1.69% = 10.79% Unemployment 

This figure (of course) does not include the number of American workers who are involuntary part-time workers due to their taking part-time jobs as full-time jobs are no longer available. 

There are about 8.8 MILLION of these folks out there as well.

Including my both my dogs pads (to help me count) for this 'much-higher' math, if we have 2.6 MILLION (10.79%) actual unemployed and we add in the additional 8.8 MILLION workers classified in 'involuntary part-time' status, this gives us a overall unemployment rate of (8.8/153.6= 05.729%). 

10.79% Unemployment  + 5.729% 'involuntary part-time' unemployment yields a meager...

Overall unemployment rate of:  16.51%

This, of course brings me back to the original purpose of this post.  This statistically-significant number of America's unemployed explains President Obama's recently-adopted message to Congress.  The President has been 'focused like a laser' on unemployment for the past 2.5 years, but he only began to make his deep concern about unemployment known over the past few weeks.  Someone must have told him that he's NOT President-For-Life, or is he?   

In case you've forgotten the President's Mono-Syllabic message on job creation, here it is again... 

This time, set to Moo-sic!



After hearing this (again) I'm thinking that we should all just, "Pass this Bill.  Pass this Bill NOW!"  I don't even think that we should take the time to read it!  It must be important - why else would we have to pass it so quickly?   

Okay, given the urgency of the President's oft-repeated request, how do you explain Senator Reid's reluctance to bring the Bill to a vote in the Senate?



The answer is simple:  Republicans AND Democrats don't want this Bill voted on prior to an election year.  The Bill as proposed by the President is radioactive.  No one wants to be anywhere near it, let alone have their signature affixed it.  It is a 'Bad Bill' 

Most interesting to me, at least, is that Harry Reid is the sponsor of the President's Bill.  I wonder why he's 'waiting' to take it up until after he 'fixes' the China problem?  Nothing like a good old-fashion Trade War with the Communist Chinese to take our collective eyes off our current economic 'Ball'!  But, if we tick them off, who'll buy our bad debt?

To save me from formulating other potential answers, I'll post what I found on CBS News online here:
McConnell said he was ready for an immediate vote on the bill, even though he opposes it. Reading aloud on the Senate floor from a copy of Obama's speech, he said, "I do think the president makes an important point that he is entitled to a vote."


The request was blocked by Reid, who called it a "political stunt" and said he would make sure the bill comes to the floor this month. Aboard Air Force One, White House press secretary Jay Carney accused Republicans of gamesmanship.


The parliamentary dance aside, the day's events underscored that, as submitted by the White House, Obama's bill would not only fail in the Republican-controlled House, but faced enough opposition from Democrats to endanger its prospects in the Senate, as well.
...

Democrats said Reid's proposed millionaires' surtax was designed to quell much if not all of the opposition from his own rank and file.


To pay for his package of tax breaks, unemployment benefits and new spending on public works projects, Obama has proposed higher taxes on family incomes over $250,000 and on the oil and gas industry.


The first request troubles Democratic senators from states like New York, New Jersey and California, where large numbers of families could be hit by the increase. The second has drawn opposition most prominently from Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, whose state is home to numerous oil and gas operations.


The president also proposed higher taxes on hedge fund managers and corporate jet owners, but those increases, too, would disappear under the changes Reid is expected to unveil as early as Wednesday.


In political terms, Democrats appear to be hoping that Republicans will oppose both the higher taxes on million-dollar earners and the president's call for new spending aimed at reducing joblessness, thus leaving themselves open to a charge of protecting the wealthy at the expense of the unemployed.

In the end, the Obama Bill (which Reid sponsored) will never be brought to the floor of the Senate.  A new and 'Improved!' (a.k.a.:  more Taxes and wealth-baiting) Bill is currently being drafted somewhere within darkened office cubicles of the Senate.  Men in dark suits, white shirts, and blue ties hover above LCD screens crafting this masterpiece of mis-direction as interns fetch them coffee; adding to their already chronic halitosis and insidious periodontal disease.  Special interest Lobbyists keep sneaking something into their Creamers, but no one quite knows what the 'something' is. 

Meanwhile, as I write this, America waits for yet another 'Next Big Thing!' to come from Washington. 

Given this Administration's non-existent success-ratio at fixing all 'that ails US' - I hope this Bill does what some many other Obama initiatives have done so splendidly...  Fail. 

I hope that Congress does take up the Jobs Bill quickly - just so that it can show the LOVE which this President so richly deserves...  



Yes, here's some love for you Mr. President.  From one President to another.


Nothing but love for you buddy.

Go ahead, click it. I'm not showing love for the President.
I am a bad man...
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